Round 14 Review

 

Not a brilliant week with the Melbourne tip but I was happy with it at the time.

r14results

The “exotic” tip brings me back to the pack a bit but it’s still a very good pack!

r14tables

Working on a few more things, including a simulation of the rest of the season.

2018-AfterR14

A lot of changes since last week, West Coast lost out a lot. These simulations are based off no changes to the latest team list, so with JJK/Darling back that’d probably change. The order is based on the mean ladder position from 10,000 season simulations. My percentages are a bit more definitive than some other (better) models’ ladder simulations but isn’t too far off!

I’m also trialing a new measure of the “best team”; I simulate a home-and-away round-robin fixture, so each team plays each other twice at each of their home grounds. I’m still working on a nicer way to present this, but for the moment I’m using the same ladder presentation.

2018-AfterR14-RR

I expected this to be a bit more definitive but it’s much more spread than I thought! Note that again, the percentage is chance of getting in the (hypothetical) top 8. There’s a tremendous divide from 14th and under and it’s VERY tight at the top. It’s a shame the draw isn’t even!

-Adam

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