A pretty good round I think. My models seem to be under-predicting margins, something I didn’t really pick up until I started looking at individual games. Having said that, my probabilities are tending to be higher than other models around and that really helped my BITS score.
Perhaps the volatility estimation for player/team performances I’m using is not optimal and I’m getting a skinnier bell curve of simulated results than others. We shall see!
This year I’ll be focussing on tweaking my model, sussing out its strengths and weaknesses and measuring it up against others. Although I have simulated data from the first 10 rounds, that was simulated blind to the actual results, I will be measuring it against results only from this round onwards; just in case my slightly messy code managed to have prior knowledge.